Climate for Station: Toluca (Obs), Mexico State, Mexico

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Los Rosales

México, Mexico

2026-02-28 20:26

16.2°C

Feels 16.2°C

H: 23°C / L: 6.9°C

Precip: 0mm | Wind: 3.6 kph

▲ 0.4°C vs historical high

Partly Cloudy

2026-03-01

H: 23.2°C

L: 6.5°C

Rain: 0%

Rainfall: 0mm

Wind: 11.9kph

▲ 0.7°C

2026-03-02

H: 21.3°C

L: 7.3°C

Rain: 0%

Rainfall: 0mm

Wind: 10.8kph

▼ 1.2°C

2026-03-03

H: 19.6°C

L: 8°C

Rain: 0%

Rainfall: 0.02mm

Wind: 9.4kph

▼ 3.0°C

2026-03-04

H: 21°C

L: 4.9°C

Rain: 78%

Rainfall: 0.7mm

Wind: 13.3kph

▼ 1.7°C

2026-03-05

H: 19.6°C

L: 5.7°C

Rain: 85%

Rainfall: 1.2mm

Wind: 11.2kph

▼ 3.1°C

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Climate Analysis & Overview

Toluca experiences a complex climate narrative where long-term warming trends contrast with recent cooling in high temperatures. The Precipitation Concentration Index indicates a slight shift towards more evenly distributed rainfall. These dynamics are crucial for understanding Toluca's evolving climate in the context of Mexico's regional climate goals.

Mountainous Climate Dynamics

Toluca, located at 19.2833°N, 99.7°W, is nestled in the high-altitude valleys of central Mexico, contributing to its subtropical highland climate (Cwb in the Köppen classification). This geography plays a crucial role in moderating temperatures and influencing precipitation patterns. The surrounding mountains act as a barrier, affecting wind and rainfall distribution, which is reflected in the station's data.

Temperature Trends: A Tale of Two Directions

Over the long term, Toluca has experienced a warming trend, with all-time high temperatures increasing by 0.89°C (1.60°F). This indicates a gradual rise in maximum temperatures, likely influenced by broader regional and global climate changes. However, the past decade reveals a different story, with a cooling trend in high temperatures of -0.28°C (-0.50°F). This divergence suggests short-term climatic variability, possibly due to localised weather patterns or human activities affecting the immediate environment.

Night-time Warming: A Persistent Trend

In contrast to the highs, low temperatures in Toluca have consistently risen. Over the last decade, there has been an increase of 0.69°C (1.24°F) in low temperatures, while the all-time trend shows a rise of 0.32°C (0.58°F). This persistent warming of night-time temperatures could be indicative of urban heat island effects or changes in atmospheric conditions that prevent heat from escaping during the night.

Precipitation Patterns: A Shift Towards Even Distribution

The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) for Toluca has decreased from a baseline of 18.57 to a current value of 17.05. This suggests a slight shift towards more evenly distributed rainfall events, reducing the concentration of precipitation in fewer, more intense events. Such a change could have implications for water resource management and agricultural planning in the region, aligning with Mexico's efforts to adapt to changing precipitation patterns.

Record Extremes: A Snapshot of Variability

Toluca's climate extremes highlight its variability, with record high temperatures reaching 33.6°C (92.5°F) and lows plunging to -11.1°C (12.0°F). These extremes underscore the range of conditions that the region can experience, influenced by its elevation and geographical positioning. Understanding these records is vital for preparing for future climate scenarios and mitigating potential impacts on the local population and infrastructure.

Station Statistics

10-Year Trend

High: -0.27 °C/decade

Low: +0.70 °C/decade

Rain: +0.16 mm/decade

25-Year Trend

High: +1.10 °C/decade

Low: +0.42 °C/decade

Rain: -0.26 mm/decade

50-Year Trend

High: +0.84 °C/decade

Low: +0.50 °C/decade

Rain: +0.06 mm/decade

All-Time Trend

High: +0.89 °C/decade

Low: +0.32 °C/decade

Rain: +0.07 mm/decade

Percentage Above-Average Days

Last 12 Months: 41.1%

This Year: 39.6%

Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) ℹ️

Last 12 Months: 16.5

Historical Average: 18.7

Percentile Rank of Last 12 Months ℹ️

High: 72^nd percentile

Low: 95^th percentile

Rain: 79^th percentile

Change in Variance ℹ️

High: +5.0%

Low: -21.5%

Intraday: -0.9%

Data Coverage

91.7%

First Year of Data

1968

Station Location

Historical Weather Records

	Max High	Avg High	Min High	Max Avg	Avg Avg	Min Avg	Max Low	Avg Low	Min Low	Max Precipitation	Avg Precipitation	Max Snow	Avg Snow
Record	33.6 °C	—	6.1 °C	23.8 °C	—	1.1 °C	15.4 °C	—	-11.1 °C	110.5 mm	—	—	—
January	28.8 °C	19.5 °C	6.1 °C	17.4 °C	10.3 °C	3.3 °C	9.8 °C	-0.1 °C	-11.1 °C	25.1 mm	0.2 mm	—	—
February	28.8 °C	21.1 °C	10.0 °C	20.3 °C	11.8 °C	4.3 °C	11.2 °C	1.0 °C	-7.8 °C	61.5 mm	0.3 mm	—	—
March	33.3 °C	23.1 °C	10.6 °C	22.9 °C	13.6 °C	6.2 °C	11.9 °C	2.5 °C	-8.3 °C	17.1 mm	0.3 mm	—	—
April	32.0 °C	24.2 °C	10.0 °C	23.3 °C	15.5 °C	6.2 °C	12.9 °C	4.9 °C	-5.0 °C	30.7 mm	0.9 mm	—	—
May	33.6 °C	24.0 °C	10.0 °C	23.8 °C	16.3 °C	9.9 °C	15.0 °C	6.9 °C	-0.6 °C	57.7 mm	2.3 mm	—	—
June	31.2 °C	22.1 °C	12.8 °C	22.9 °C	15.7 °C	9.8 °C	15.4 °C	8.6 °C	-1.7 °C	73.2 mm	4.7 mm	—	—
July	29.4 °C	20.7 °C	13.3 °C	20.4 °C	14.6 °C	8.6 °C	13.6 °C	8.2 °C	0.0 °C	55.4 mm	5.0 mm	—	—
August	26.9 °C	20.9 °C	13.3 °C	20.6 °C	14.7 °C	9.8 °C	14.3 °C	8.1 °C	0.0 °C	55.6 mm	5.0 mm	—	—
September	28.3 °C	20.7 °C	10.6 °C	20.7 °C	14.5 °C	8.3 °C	13.7 °C	8.1 °C	-3.9 °C	71.6 mm	4.5 mm	—	—
October	29.4 °C	20.9 °C	10.0 °C	20.0 °C	13.6 °C	6.6 °C	12.9 °C	5.5 °C	-7.2 °C	110.5 mm	1.7 mm	—	—
November	28.9 °C	20.5 °C	9.4 °C	20.4 °C	11.9 °C	4.1 °C	11.7 °C	2.2 °C	-7.8 °C	13.7 mm	0.4 mm	—	—
December	30.6 °C	19.6 °C	8.9 °C	17.7 °C	10.6 °C	1.1 °C	10.4 °C	0.6 °C	-10.0 °C	8.8 mm	0.1 mm	—	—